Bitcoin Market Analysis — June Part 1

Greythorn Asset Management
3 min readJun 7, 2023

BTC and ETH TL;DR

  • Bitcoin & Ethereum are up by 1.37% & 4.65%, respectively, over the past fortnight.
  • Greythorn views that Bitcoin will trade between $25,000 and $30,000 over the upcoming week based on our option flow model.

Greythorn Flow Model:

Greythorn’s view of markets is significantly dependent on supply & demand mechanics. As crypto markets mature & attract large flows of capital, their derivatives markets also grow. Derivatives markets tend to have a large influence on their underlying assets as market participants tend to hedge their exposure through spot & futures markets. Our proprietary option flow model has been developed in-house to inform our judgement regarding how positioning across derivatives markets may influence the movement of Bitcoin.

Figure 1: Greythorn Option Flow Model 050623. Source: Proprietary — Greythorn Research Team. Data: Deribit.

Following a strong jobs report, Bitcoin repositioned itself over the past week and hovered above $27,000 on Monday morning.

From the perspective of options supply, increased volatility can be expected at several price levels, including $22,000, $24,000, $26,000, and $27,000.

If price decreases, a correction and consolidation can be expected at $25,000, which serves as the only support level to the downside.

Resistance levels are denser and more significant compared to support levels. Should price move to the upside, $28,000 can be seen as the first and most considerable resistance level, followed by $29,000 and $30,000 as the second and third. The interval between $32,000 and $35,000 forms a mild resistance zone, indicating relatively higher liquidity at those prices.

Gamma supply is ~50% higher than that of the previous fortnight, signalling a relatively flat market for the following week. The magnitude of liquidity provision is far greater than liquidity taking, particularly at $28,000.

Traditional markets remain quiet in terms of macro indicators to be released this week, however, data from Japan regarding GDP, as well as US Crude Oil Inventories and Initial Jobless Claims, can potentially introduce volatility to the market.

Greythorn believes that Bitcoin will trade between $25,000 & $30,000 over the upcoming week based on our option flow model.

For an introduction to Greythorn Option Flow Model, please refer to our newsletter from 8th June 2022. https://greythorn.substack.com/p/greythorn-asset-management-newsletter

The information contained within this newsletter is purely our opinion and should not be considered by readers to constitute any form of financial or investment advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research into any financial product that they are interested in and Greythorn will not incur any liability for potential losses.

Important notice and disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared by Greythorn Asset Management Pty Ltd (ABN 96 621 995 659) (Greythorn). The information in this presentation should be regarded as general information only rather than investment advice and financial advice. It is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. In preparing this document Greythorn did not take into account the investment objectives, financial circumstances, or particular needs of any recipient who receives or reads it. Before making any investment decisions, recipients of this presentation should consider their own personal circumstances and seek professional advice from their accountant, lawyer, or other professional adviser. This presentation contains statements, opinions, projections, forecasts, and other material (forward-looking statements), based on various assumptions. Greythorn is not obliged to update the information. Those assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. None of Greythorn, its officers, employees, agents, advisers or any other person named in this presentation makes any representation as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statements or any of the assumptions upon which they are based. Greythorn and its officers, employees, agents and advisers give no warranty, representation or guarantee as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation. None of Greythorn and its officers, employees, agents and advisers accept, to the extent permitted by law, responsibility for any loss, claim, damages, costs or expenses arising out of, or in connection with, the information contained in this presentation. This presentation is the property of Greythorn. By receiving this presentation, the recipient agrees to keep its content confidential and agrees not to copy, supply, disseminate or disclose any information in relation to its content without written consent.

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Greythorn Asset Management

Melbourne-based asset management firm specialising in Technology, Web3, Cryptocurrency, and Blockchain. Subscribe for our latest industry insights.