Bitcoin Price Predictions January Part 1

BTC and ETH TL;DR

  • Bitcoin & Ethereum are up 4.40% and 10.32%, respectively, over the past fortnight.
Figure 1: Greythorn Option Flow Model 110123. Source: Proprietary — Greythorn Research Team. Data: Laevitas.

Bitcoin price has steadily been increasing since the beginning of 2023, partially due to the strong economic reports by the end of 2022 and falling inflation expectations in the US. Opening at a price of $17,124, Bitcoin continues its recent uptrend by trading around $17,200.

Increased volatility is expected at a series of price levels that have negative Net GEX, namely the interval between $11,000 and $15,000, $16,000, $16,500 and $20,000.

If the price decreases, $17,000 is the first significant and strong support level, followed by $15,500 as a next level support. A further drop in value past this last support would accelerate price moves to the downside. Alternatively as indicated in the Net GEX chart, an increase in the price for Bitcoin will be met with resistances zones at the $17,450 and $19,000 levels. Finally, the $21,000 and $22,000 price levels indicated in the previous figure could be deciphered as potential resistance levels should Bitcoin appreciate past $19,000 in the short-term.

The value of overall Net GEX remains to be positive, with its value doubling more than it was a fortnight ago. An indicative sign of a more forward-looking stable market for the upcoming week. The graph above can also serve as a visual aid for this demand-supply equation, whereby liquidity provision inflows are larger than its liquidity withdrawal outflows, at $17,000 and $18,000 respectively.

Changing scope into traditional markets, crude oil inventories, CPI data and Initial Jobless Claims of the US will be released on Thursday and Friday this week along with the UK GDP report that follows. These significant macroeconomic indicators can bring more uncertainties to the Bitcoin market by influencing the market sentiment and increasing market volatility in the interim. Naturally the precedence of volatility dictates the prime trend which follows, hence a trading strategy based on these limits requires one to also consider the macro and idiosyncratic risks of associated assets invested.

Greythorn believes that Bitcoin will range between $17,000 and $18,000 over the upcoming week based on our option flow model.

For an introduction to Greythorn Option Flow Model, please refer to our newsletter from 8th June 2022. https://greythorn.substack.com/p/greythorn-asset-management-newsletter

Disclaimer

The information contained within this newsletter is purely our opinion and should not be considered by readers to constitute any form of financial or investment advice. We encourage readers to conduct their own research into any financial product that they are interested in and Greythorn will not incur any liability for potential losses.

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